By Diana Roy 
Illustrations by George Wylesol
Charts by Will Merrow

This scenario is an example of how the loss of satellites can affect virtually every aspect of modern daily life. It is highly improbable, but not impossible.

Close calls have happened. 

In 2009, an active satellite launched and operated by U.S. company Iridium Communications (then Iridium Satellite) accidentally collided with defunct Russian satellite Cosmos 2251 at a relative speed of around twenty-six thousand miles per hour over northern Siberia. The collision only caused minor service outages to clients, but it produced more than 1,800 pieces of space debris that now can cause even more collisions with other satellites—and there are far more satellites today than in 2009. The Union of Concerned Scientists compared this debris cloud [PDF] to “a shotgun blast that threatens other satellites in the region.” 

Prior to the collision, there were about three thousand pieces of debris greater than ten centimeters in diameter in orbit. Now, there are roughly forty thousand, largely made up of defunct satellites, discarded pieces of spacecraft, and fragments from anti-satellite missile tests. Even the smaller pieces pose a great danger to humans in space and space assets, as they can collide at speeds of seventeen thousand miles per hour.

Since then, NASA and other space agencies have observed many “near misses” between orbiting satellites and debris, which, if they had collided, would have added to the already immense and increasing amount of orbital debris. As space becomes more treacherous, the risk of collision rapidly grows. 

The world is also far more reliant on satellite technology today than ever before. While the 2009 collision might have only caused minor service outages, we may not be so lucky next time.

Satellites are the backbone of global communication networks.

They provide critical services, including:

✨ Data transmission
💻 Internet access
🗺️ Navigation assistance
🌦️ Weather monitoring
🛰️ Intelligence gathering

As countries and companies, such as SpaceX and its subsidiary, Starlink, have launched more and more satellites into outer space, Earth’s orbit has become increasingly crowded, elevating the risk of collisions. Any collisions could damage satellites, compromising the services they provide. And each collision creates more space debris—fragments of broken space objects that stay in orbit—which in turn increases the risk of subsequent collisions. This is a phenomenon known as the Kessler Syndrome.

How many satellites are in orbit? There are roughly twelve thousand, and most of them are circling Earth in low Earth orbit—the orbital range closest to the planet and therefore easiest to reach.

Some of these satellites have been orbiting for decades and provide critical services like the Global Positioning System (GPS), a U.S.-owned utility that provides positioning, navigation, and timing services. If the GPS constellation is substantially compromised, it could cause significant disruptions to everything from your morning drive to the supply chains that we rely on for everyday goods and services. 

It would also have serious national security implications in a world where space competition is heating up. Previous incidents have fueled concerns about the effect of potential disruptions to satellite-based services as a result of increased space junk.

As our reliance on satellites grows, so does the need for enhanced international cooperation. International rules of the road would assist countries and companies alike in ensuring safe launching and operations in space. But today there is no single formal international organization or mechanism to enforce those rules.

To delve deeper into ways to safeguard the critical role that satellites play in daily life, the Council on Foreign Relations convened a Task Force to assess current U.S. space policy. The Task Force report, Securing Space: A Plan for U.S. Action, led by retired U.S. Space Force Lieutenant General Nina Armagno, former Representative Jane Harman, and CFR James H. Binger Senior Fellow in Global Governance Esther Brimmer, puts forth recommendations for addressing threats to space assets, advancing space traffic management and space safety, and incorporating commercial perspectives into civilian and national security space policy.

Disclaimer: This article is hypothetical and based on speculative scenarios that are highly unlikely to occur. The information presented should not be taken as predictions or expectations of real events.

Produced by: María Teresa Alzuru, Lucky Benson, Michael Bricknell, Esther Brimmer, Julia Katsovich, Noah Robischon, Jeremy Sherlick, Millie Tran, and Mali X